Labour should be the hegemonic party in British politics
When it gets itself sorted, it wins
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Michael Heseltine, during the Conservatives long dominance of UK politics of the 1980s, was asked whether he thought Labour would win again. His response was, ‘Labour will win when it wants to’ – which rather implies that, when the Labour Party is sufficiently organized and focused on victory, it wins. As an analysis, this rather suggests the UK isn’t inherently right-wing – almost every time there’s a sane, palatable centre-left option on offer, the electorate plumps for it1.
I’ve been following UK politics since the mid-90s, during which time the Labour Party has elected sane, normy centre-left technocrats twice (first Blair, then Starmer) and been rewarded by general election victories on three occasions. Having just won three by-elections in a month, a further spell in national government is seemingly on the cards. Clearly, Labour has a gift for messing up, but it would also require Rishi Sunak to fight one of the greatest-ever election campaigns. Count me, politely, a touch sceptical.
To a certain extent, it seems to Blair cracked the code for how centre-left parties can win under Britain’s ‘First past the post’ (simply, the person who finishes first in a constituency wins) voting system; you cleave to the centre, don’t frighten the horses with outlandish rhetoric and position yourself so enough Lib Dems can vote Tory without worrying about enabling radicalism. As Roy Jenkins both identified and practiced, that Britain’s liberal left is split between liberal and left parties under our voting system always puts a a dampener on Labour’s election chances, so you need to minimize it. Ironically, a successful Labour Party seems to improve Lib Dem fortunes too, meaning even if Labour is open to coalitions its best tactic is to try and govern outright.
Though Labour can have a substantial reform agenda, from everything to devolution to a green jobs revolution, it must express it in non-threatening and small ‘c’ conservative language. It recognizes the overwhelming importance, given that opposition parties have very little time to make an impression to the public, of giving off unthreatening vibes, and it makes sure that no unpatriotic vibes are present. It always sings the anthem.
Starmer is cleaving to this, distinct only in his refreshing emphasis on class; I suspect his personal politics are to the left of Blair, but he is, just as Blair was, determined to evade the slightest unnecessary risk.
I understand that for a large part of the UK left, this approach falls way short. Why wouldn’t it? Its presentation, though not necessarily its substance, is often defined in rejection of them. The radical left would ideally be represented by a smaller left party who get 10-15% of the vote and occasionally refuse the option to enter into coalition agreements. The aim of this ‘more left’ party would not primarily be to govern but to ensure effective representation of particular views. There is an argument that such parties provide a corrective to centre-left parties drifting too far into compromise; I personally have not seen that in action in other PR systems, as such parties seem above all animated by hatred of their moderate left cousins or, indeed, their own smaller internal factions. But I do think such views should have the right to political representation.
It is, though, simply a fool’s errand to try and use an established centre-left party, whose aims can only be realized by gaining power, as an effective vehicle for radical left politics. The historical mission of the Labour Party is to represent working class people in parliament; it simply isn’t set up, and is too Labourist an institution, to effectively represent a modern left insurgency. The simulation can be run as many times as we want but it will have roughly the same result, heartbreak and frustration on all sides and a lot, and I mean a lot, of infighting.
The one consolation the British left can though take is that if even Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader can pull off a relatively close defeat in our system, this is further evidence that the UK electorate is not inherently right-wing.